MLB

Keibert Ruiz: OVER 0.5 Hits (-182)

vs. CIN Hunter Greene: [R]

Ruiz vs. Greene
Keibert Ruiz has shown a 100% success rate against Hunter Greene, slashing a perfect 1.000 in 2 at-bats. He’s collected 2 hits (both singles) in those 2 ABs, with zero strikeouts. Small sample size? Sure. But when Ruiz gets on, he’s making it count.

Ruiz (Last 7 Days):
Ruiz has been relatively quiet recently, hitting just .217 with 5 hits across 23 at-bats. He’s been struggling to generate extra-base hits, and his .497 OPS shows he’s not hitting for power or average right now. However, he's still hitting for contact at a solid 20% hit rate, and while he's not a consistent force, he's been able to get on base — just not at the level we want to see for a lot of upside.

Trust The Model:

While Ruiz has been struggling lately, his 100% hit rate against Greene in a small sample is tough to overlook. He may not be the most consistent hitter right now, but given the favorable matchup and his ability to connect against Greene, Over 0.5 Hits is a value play here.

Josh Naylor: OVER 0.5 Hits (-155)

vs. PHI Jesús Luzardo: [L]

Naylor vs. Luzardo:

 Josh Naylor has a 100% success rate against Luzardo in a small sample, going 2-for-2 with 2 singles. He hasn’t struck out in either at-bat and has shown the ability to make solid contact.

Naylor (Last 7 Days):

Naylor has been locked in recently, hitting .294 with 5 hits over 17 at-bats. He’s also been showing a decent amount of power, with a .471 SLG and 2 extra-base hits. His .871 OPS indicates he's been effective at generating offense, and he’s hitting at a solid 23.81% clip.

Trust The Model:

Naylor’s recent form combined with his 100% hit rate against Luzardo gives us confidence. He’s been hitting for average and power, and his performance against lefties like Luzardo suggests a strong chance of continuing this streak. Over 0.5 Hits looks like a solid play at this price.

Marcus Semien: OVER 0.5 Hits (-186)

vs. SEA Bryan Woo: [R]

Semien vs. Woo:

Marcus Semien has been extremely effective against Bryan Woo, hitting 5-for-11 with 3 singles, 1 double, and 1 home run. His .455 AVG and .818 SLG against Woo show that he’s been able to get solid contact, and his 41.67% hit rate is a positive indicator.

Semien (Last 7 Days):

Semien has been locked in lately, hitting .333 with 8 hits over 24 at-bats. His .782 OPS shows solid on-base and slugging percentages, though he hasn't hit for extra bases in the last week. His 27.59% hit rate in the last 7 days gives us confidence that he’s staying consistent at the plate.

Trust The Model:

With a strong history against Woo and his solid current form, Semien looks poised to get a hit today. His historical success combined with his recent consistency makes the Over 0.5 Hits prop a strong option at this price.

Juan Soto: OVER 0.5 Hits (-215)

vs. STL Sonny Gray [R]

Soto vs. Gray:

Soto is batting a scorching .500/.600/.800 in 10 official at-bats (15 plate appearances) against Sonny Gray. He’s racked up 5 hits, including a home run, and has drawn 4 walks while striking out zero times. This is elite-level plate presence and damage — he sees Gray very well and punishes mistakes.

Soto (Last 7 Days):

Juan's been raking over the past week — hitting .320 with 8 hits, 2 home runs, and a 1.073 OPS across 25 ABs. He’s working counts (5 walks), barreling pitches, and reaching base at a .433 clip. He’s recorded a hit in 5 of his last 7 games.

Trust The Model:

This is a no-nonsense spot. Soto is locked in, and his history vs Gray is about as lopsided as you’ll see. Even though this isn’t a total bases prop, his ability to get on base with a hit or walk makes him one of the safest “Over 0.5 Hits” plays on the board. Fire it up with confidence.

Ryan Mountcastle: OVER 0.5 Hits (-230)

vs. SD Michael Wacha: [R]

Mountcastle vs. Wacha:

Ryan Mountcastle has had solid success against Michael Wacha, hitting 10-for-22 in 23 plate appearances with 6 singles, 1 double, 3 home runs, and 4 walks. His .455 AVG and .955 SLG are excellent, showing that he’s been hitting for both average and power against Wacha, with a 43.48% hit rate.

Mountcastle (Last 7 Days):

In the last week, Mountcastle has struggled, hitting just 1-for-19 with a .053 BA, and only 3 total bases in his past 6 games. His 4.76% hit rate and 95.24% no-hit rate indicate he’s in a tough stretch at the plate.

Trust The Model:

Despite Mountcastle’s recent struggles, his solid historical performance against Wacha suggests he could snap out of his slump. The odds are steep at -230, but the strong track record of hitting against Wacha combined with his power potential makes this a favorable pick.

Riley Greene: OVER 0.5 Hits (-230)

vs. COL José Soriano: [R]

Greene vs. Soriano:

 Riley Greene does not have any prior at-bats against José Soriano, so we are relying on recent form and the matchup against a right-handed pitcher.

Greene (Last 7 Days):

Greene has been on fire lately, hitting 10-for-26 with 3 doubles, 3 home runs, and 6 RBIs, and a .385 BA over his last 7 games. His .769 SLG and 1.218 OPS show he’s hitting with power and driving the ball well. With a 34.48% hit rate and 65.52% no-hit rate, he’s been locked in offensively.

Trust The Model:

Greene’s current form makes him a strong candidate to get a hit today. His .385 BA over the last week and a solid overall offensive performance give us confidence that he’ll get on base against Soriano. Although the odds are -230, Greene’s hot streak and ability to hit for extra bases make him a solid pick to record at least one hit today.