POTW Log

Week 15: Josh Downs Over 50.5 Receiving Yards

Josh Downs OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards is the Play for Week 15.

When it comes to finding value in NFL props, you’ve got to identify matchups, opportunity, and performance trends, and Josh Downs checks all three boxes this week.

Matchup: The Colts take on the Denver Broncos, whose defense has shown significant improvement this season, but still has cracks that can be exploited. Most notably, their secondary will be without CB Riley Moss, a hit to their versatility at the CB position. On top of that, superstar corner Pat Surtain II will almost certainly shadow Michael Pittman Jr., leaving Downs with an easier road to production.

Opportunity: Downs has surprisingly (to some) become the Colts’ most reliable weapon through the air. The rookie has stepped up when Pittman faces tough coverage or misses time with injuries, and he’s delivered. 

Performance Trends: He’s cleared 50.5 receiving yards in 2 of his last 3 games, 6 of his last 8, and 7 of 10 games this season. That kind of consistency tells us one thing: when the Colts need to move the chains, Josh Downs is their guy.

And let’s not forget—Downs isn’t just a volume play. His route running, hands, and knack for creating separation make him a legitimate threat, regardless of the defensive matchup. With Pittman likely locked up and Moss out, the Colts’ game plan should include plenty of targets for Downs. It’s a perfect storm of talent, opportunity, and a line that’s begging to be taken.

At 50.5 yards, we don’t need anything crazy—just 51 through the air. That’s a number Downs can and has hit in this spot, and the numbers back it up. 

trust the model. Let’s cash it.